JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Warns Recession Might Hit in 6 Months, Inventory Market Might Drop 20% Extra — ‘This Is Severe Stuff’
The CEO of global investment bank JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, has warned that the U.S. economy could tip into recession in six to nine months. “This is serious stuff,” the executive stressed, adding that the stock market could easily fall another 20%.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s Warnings
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon shared his warnings about the U.S. economy and the stock market in an interview with CNBC Monday at the JPM Techstars conference in London.
Dimon cited a number of indicators that could push the U.S. economy into recession, including runaway inflation, interest rates rising more than expected, the effects of quantitative easing, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Stating that “Europe is already in recession,” the JPMorgan boss said:
These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world … in some kind of recession six to nine months from now.
The executive noted that the Federal Reserve is “clearly catching up” as inflation reached a 40-year high, emphasizing that the central bank “waited too long and did too little.” Dimon opined: “And, you know, from here, let’s all wish him [Fed’s chairman] success and keep our fingers crossed that they managed to slow down the economy enough so that whatever it is, is mild — and it is possible.”
Nonetheless, he believes that the U.S. economy is “actually still doing well,” adding that consumers are likely to be in better shape than during the 2008 global financial crisis. However, he cautioned:
But you can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future — and this is serious stuff.
Responding to a question about how long the U.S. economy will likely be in recession, he admitted that he could not be certain, advising market participants to assess a range of outcomes. “It can go from very mild to quite hard and a lot will be reliant on what happens with this war. So, I think to guess is hard, be prepared,” the JPMorgan chief stated.
Dimon was also asked about the outlook for the S&P 500. He stressed that the markets will be volatile and the benchmark could fall further from current levels. “It may have a ways to go. It really depends on that soft-landing, hard-landing thing and since I don’t know the answer to that, it’s hard to answer … it could be another easy 20%,” the JPMorgan executive replied, elaborating:
The next 20% would be much more painful than the first.
“Rates going up another 100 basis points will be a lot more painful than the first 100 because people aren’t used to it, and I think negative rates — when all is said and done — will have been a complete failure,” he concluded. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 has already dropped 25% year-to-date.
In June, Dimon warned that an economic hurricane was coming, advising people to brace themselves. In August, the JPMorgan boss doubled down on his warning, cautioning that “something worse” than a recession could be coming.
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